Multiple bets: the payout multiplies and so does the margin

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Leave a line empty and that leg simply does not exist. The margin is a field because it changes with the house, the sport and the market; the value the page starts with is what a pair priced at minus one hundred and ten on both sides works out to.

Nothing here recommends betting, and nothing here says a multiple is a good idea. The page puts a price on a ticket somebody has already decided to build.

Results

Legs on the ticket
Combined decimal odds
What the ticket pays back
Implied chance of the whole ticket, in percent
Combined odds with no margin in them
What it would have paid back at those
Difference, left on the table
Margin on the whole ticket, in percent

The prize multiplies and so does the margin, and only one of those is advertised. Each leg carries the house cut, and stringing the legs together charges that cut once per leg on the same money: the whole ticket costs one plus the margin, raised to the number of legs, minus one.

What the same margin does as legs pile up

LegsMargin on the whole ticket, in percentShare of a fair payout you give up, in percent

Read that column downwards. A cut of four point seven six on a single bet is the ordinary price of doing business, and nobody argues with it. The same cut on a five leg ticket is twenty six, and on eight legs it is forty five, which no one would accept if it were quoted that way at the counter.

This is also why the ticket that pays the most is the one that costs the most. The payout grows because unlikely things are being multiplied together, and the price of being wrong grows with it in exactly the same motion; the two are the same arithmetic seen from opposite ends.

The other number worth staring at is the implied chance. Three legs that each looked comfortable, at two, one point eight and one point five, come to eighteen and a half out of a hundred for the ticket. Every leg felt likely and the ticket is not, because likelihoods multiply and intuition adds.

None of this says the legs are wrong. It says the ticket is priced worse than the sum of its parts, by an amount that grows every time another leg is added, and that the growth is the point rather than a detail.

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Why is a multiple worse than the same bets placed separately?

Because the house cut is charged once per leg, on the same money. If every leg carries a margin of m, the whole ticket carries one plus m raised to the number of legs, minus one.

At the 4.76 per cent that a pair priced at minus one hundred and ten works out to, two legs already cost 9.75 per cent and five legs cost 26.18. The prize multiplies and the cut multiplies with it.

LegsMargin on the whole ticket, in percent
14,76
29,75
314,97
526,18
845,07
The legs all looked likely. Why is the ticket not?

Because likelihoods multiply while intuition adds. Three comfortable legs at two, one point eight and one point five come to 18.52 out of a hundred for the ticket as a whole.

Nothing went wrong in the picking. Each leg can be a sensible view and the combination still be a long shot, which is the part the payout is quietly paying you for.

What is the margin field, and what should I put in it?

It is the house cut on a single leg, and it changes with the house, the sport and the market, so the page asks rather than assuming. The starting value is what an even contest priced at minus one hundred and ten on both sides comes to.

If you want to measure it instead of guessing, add up the implied chances of every outcome of one market: the amount by which they pass a hundred is that market's margin.

Does this mean multiples are a mistake?

It does not say that, and the page does not recommend or discourage any bet. What it says is that the ticket is priced worse than the sum of its parts, by an amount that grows every time a leg is added.

Knowing the size of that gap is the point. Whether it is worth paying is a decision this calculation has no business making.